Good & Bad | February 26, 2021 | FFS

The week was all about inflation data, but have we inflated its importance?

Monday S&P 500 0.04% | NASDAQ 0.03%

Markets were little changed on the day. There was very little economic news out before the bell on Monday. The week will likely be sharply focused on Wednesday when we get the updated figures for March inflation. The report is expected to show an increase from February.

Tuesday S&P 500 0.14% | NASDAQ 0.32%

Small business sentiment slipped in March to the lowest level since January 2013! Even still, markets advanced ahead of inflation data on Wednesday. Growth stocks out-performed which signals that an increase of inflation data would likely not hamper growth stock leadership. This is important because the rate cuts expected later this year would favor growth stocks most.

Wednesday S&P 500 0.95% | NASDAQ 0.84%

Consumer Price Index (CPI) information showed that inflation has stopped cooling. A 0.1% reading was replaced with a 0.4% reading. The main culprits were transportation services, energy, and home services. The markets moved sharply lower, but likely on the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) minutes release, rather than on CPI data. FRB Minutes showed concerns that inflation was stagnating, endangering the likelihood of the FRB cutting rates later this year.

Thursday S&P 500 0.74% | NASDAQ 1.68%

Producer Price Index (PPI), which is a proxy for wholesale inflation rose less than expected. Initial jobless claims fell on the day supporting a strong job market. The weaker than expected inflation data led to a bounce back rally by markets. Little was changed about rate cut expectations moving forward however, given the FRB minutes from March.

Friday S&P 500 1.46% | NASDAQ 1.62%

Michigan Consumer Sentiment is projected to slip, but remains in the high 70’s. Financial firms got earnings season underway on Friday and they did not impress. The slide on Friday solidified a down week for equities. The Nasdaq led markets lower on the day, but its Thursday rebound mitigated losses for the week.

Conclusion S&P 500 1.56% | NASDAQ 0.45%

The week ended well into the red. The fall represented the worst week for the S&P 500 since January. In January the focus was on the markets accepting that the FRB may only cut rates three times this year. This time it is on the realization that perhaps the FRB may not cut rates at all. As of now investor expectations are that the FRB will cut rates one, maybe two times (September and December). The meeting in two weeks should provide more clarity. Even with this change to rate cut expectations, it will be interesting to see what action the FRB takes with Quantitative Tightening. If they do start to slow the selling bonds that should provide some relief.

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Monday

Rotation, rotation, rotation. Markets fell Monday led by the NASDAQ. The gainers for the day were financials, commodities, and specifically energy. The move is indicative of rising inflationary expectations.

Tuesday

The start of trading on Tuesday looked much like Monday as markets opened deep in the red. Technology shares led the market lower once again. The move, however, did not last. The S&P 500 erased all of its losses for the day to end the day up 0.13%. The NASDAQ was not as lucky as it still fell 0.5%. This further advanced the value vs. growth trade.

Wednesday

Markets on Wednesday shrugged off the recent woes and steamed to a strong close. The S&P 500 rising 1.14% out pacing the NASDAQ at 0.99%. Much of this came following Federal Reserve Chair comments affirming loose monetary policy well into the next economic expansion.

Thursday

The day started bad and just kept getting worse. The S&P 500 tumbled 2.45% and the NASDAQ tumbled 3.52%. This was happening as interest rates continued to rise in anticipation of inflation later this year. This inflationary expectation is nothing new. The economy is improving quicker than expected and appears to be spooking the markets.

Friday

The S&P moved between positive and negative territory all day. Settling 0.48% lower. This was not much of a rebound statement after the tumble markets took Thursday. The reflation trade that calls for strong growth later this year is concerning in the credit markets. The burden that debt will have on corporate balance sheets as rates rise could cause concerning pressure on earnings.

Conclusion

Last week was a rough one for the markets. The S&P 500 lost 2.45% and the NASDAQ fell 4.92%. The losses last week reflect concerns that the economy will grow too fast. As consumption ramps up, inflation becomes more of a risk. That inflation will likely lead to a steeper yield curve causing adjustable-rate debt to increase interest obligations on corporate balance sheets. This increased debt obligation is feared to cut into corporate profits in the future. In this way too much growth can be a bad thing… Kind of…