Markets sold consistently across the week. Is there more red to expect in coming weeks?
Monday S&P 500 1.20% | NASDAQ 1.79%
Happy Tax Day! Retail sales expanded more than expected in March. Three major companies reported earnings, all three met expectations, all of which were financials. This was not surprising as financials usually head up earnings season. They also give us a good indication of how earnings season should go. Retail sales, however, took center stage as a strong consumer reduces the need for Federal Reserve Board (FRB) rate cuts. This caused an outsized move downward as investors anticipate less stimulus for 2024.
Tuesday S&P 500 0.21% | NASDAQ 0.12%
Housing data for March came in weaker than market expectation. Ten major companies reported earnings, with two missing expectations. Although mild, the losses continued. FRB Chair Powell indicated that inflation’s recent strength does not give the board confidence to start easing policy.
Wednesday S&P 500 0.58% | NASDAQ 1.15%
11 major companies reported earnings on the day, with three missing expectations. Focus was squarely on earnings as there was little economic data on the day. Tech stocks took a hit as AI chip orders for a specific company did not meet expectations. As would be expected this hit the tech heavy NASDAQ harder than the S&P 500.
Thursday S&P 500 0.22% | NASDAQ 0.52%
Initial unemployment claims remain benign. Existing home sales also slowed in March. 11 major companies reported earnings on the day, with one missing expectations. Markets were down for the day, but in a less dramatic fashion. Robust employment data typically is not favorable information when hoping for an FRB rate cut (as investors are).
Friday S&P 500 0.88% | NASDAQ 2.05%
Six major companies reported earnings on the day, with one missing expectations. NASDAQ led the way lower as Tech and communications got hit hardest. The best performers on the day were defensives, like utilities, healthcare, staples, and also financials.
Conclusion S&P 500 3.05% | NASDAQ 5.52%
The week was bloody. There was not a single up day for the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ Composite. The moves were not founded in fundamental data, as earnings did well. Some forward guidance shows warning of slowing revenues throughout the year, but that is normal for the last two years. Economic data, which signals the economy is doing well, has actually pushed stocks lower. The stronger the economy, the less likely the FRB is to act in reducing rates. The sell-off has extended to approximately 6%. It may take a breather in the coming days but expect that we are not done.
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This last week was like a pendulum as the markets swung back and forth. Should this continue?
Monday
Markets slipped on Monday with the S&P 500 shifting down less than 0.2%. Manufacturing data disappointed, although the number still indicated expansion. The miss set a sell mood for the day.
Tuesday
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% on Tuesday as a broad-based rally grabbed hold. All major indices rose on the day. Factory orders, a good indication of future consumer demand, rose more than expected in June.
Wednesday
Markets retreated from the Tuesday rally. ADP employment data, often used as a predictor for the Friday jobs report, missed expectations. A foreshadowing of concern over the employment market dominated the trading day.
Thursday
The gyrations of the market continued on Thursday as the market regained the losses felt on Wednesday. This came as initial jobless claims dipped back below 400K, landing at 385K.
Friday
Although mild, markets ended the week on an up note. The S&P 500 gained about 0.10% on the day. The data was strong as jobs Friday delivered. Unemployment fell to 5.4% and 943K jobs were added in July. While strong it was not enough to elicit a strong market reaction as concerns over a hot re-opening persist.
Conclusion
For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.93%. Jobs were in focus this week, as was continued concerns over the spread of the Delta Variant. This coming week is set up to have a continued focus on jobs data and consumer data.
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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.