11|09|2021

Delivering Gains! | November 5, 2021

AUTHOR: Jason Roque, CFP®, APMA®, AWMA®
TITLE:   Investment Adviser Rep – CCO
TAGS: S&P 500, NASDAQ, CPI, PPI, Oil, Retail Sales, Sentiment
  

Markets lost ground for the second week. Does this say more about the last two weeks or the week ahead?

Monday                       S&P 500 0.11% | NASDAQ 0.41%

Markets opened the week in a muted tone. There was very little movement as Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was awaited on Tuesday.

Tuesday                        S&P 500 1.12% | NASDAQ 1.54%

CPI data for February showed inflation inching up slightly. Markets opened in the red on the news, but an earnings beat by Oracle allowed equities to march higher.

Wednesday                 S&P 500 0.19% | NASDAQ 0.54%

Crude oil inventories fell when a surplus was expected, which will further support higher prices for energy. Interest rates climbed on the back of the higher than expected CPI data from Tuesday. Growth stocks lagged as the data implies the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) will be less likely to cut rates.

Thursday                     S&P 500 0.29% | NASDAQ 0.30%

The Producer Price Index (PPI), a wholesale inflation gauge, rose in February to 1.6%. Retail sales advanced less than expected and initial jobless claims remained benign. A strong jobs market with firming inflation does not bode well for future rate cuts. Markets sold on the news, though not aggressively, as hope remains for FRB rate cuts later in the year.

Friday                          S&P 500 0.65% | NASDAQ 0.96%

Consumer sentiment is projected to fall to 76.5 in March from 76.9 in February. While lower, February and March are the first readings in the 70’s since August of last year. The week closed out on a sour note as commodity prices rise with inflation data. Further concerns mount that the inflation fight may have longer to go before a rate cut.

Conclusion                  S&P 500 0.13% | NASDAQ 0.70%

This is the first back-to-back losing weeks for the market in 2024. This leads to an FRB meeting week where guidance about potential future rate cuts will be hotly watched. Not only is the FRB meeting next week, but there is very little in the way of economic data for the week. This puts all the more focus on the FRB. 

~ Your Future… Our Services… Together! ~

Your interest in our articles helps us reach more people.  To show your appreciation for this post, please “like” the article on one of the links below:

Facebook | Twitter | LinkedIn

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

If you would like to receive this weekly article and other timely information follow us, here.

Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.

Jobs, jobs, jobs… Markets are climbing as the job market is delivering! Will the gains hold?

Monday

Manufacturing PMI beat expectations to open the week. PMI came in at 60.8 when 60.5 was expected. The S&P 500 ended up rising 0.18% to open the week. The Small cap markets surged substantially on the day, however, gaining over 1%.

Tuesday

The S&P 500 gained 0.40% on the day and led the way for markets. In all, it was a strong day as all major US indices were up. This may have been an anticipatory trade as it led into the Federal Reserve meeting results on Wednesday.

Wednesday

Markets hovered slightly in the red most of the day, but in the closing hour, markets surged. This came as investors were pleasantly surprised with the taper program announced. The program was assumed to end in the 2nd quarter and now is projected to end in the 3rd quarter. The S&P 500 ended up gaining .64% on the day.

Thursday

Initial jobless claims… fell to a post pandemic low! Sound familiar? It fell to 269K, inching closer to pre-pandemic norms. On-going claims fell as well, in a continuing trend as of late. The S&P 500 added 0.4% on the day.

Friday

Happy jobs Friday… No really… US employers added 531K jobs when 450K were expected. This dropped the unemployment rate to 4.6% from 4.8%. The one piece of disappointing news was the continued stagnation of the participation rate. We currently sit 1% lower than pre-pandemic levels, or roughly 1.6M workers.

Conclusion

The first week of every month is generally all about job data–this week is no different. In the coming weeks, expect the focus to shift from jobs to earnings, then ultimately, to the debt ceiling. This issue is unresolved and poses a concern for the end of November/start of December…

~Your Future… Our Services… Together!~

Your interest in our articles helps us reach more people.  To show your appreciation for this post, please “like” the article on one of the links below:

Facebook | Twitter | LinkedIn

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

If you would like to receive this weekly article and other timely information follow us, here.

Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.