06|07|2022

Markets Move Lower? | June 3, 2022

Markets sold consistently across the week. Is there more red to expect in coming weeks?

Monday                       S&P 500 1.20% | NASDAQ 1.79%

Happy Tax Day! Retail sales expanded more than expected in March. Three major companies reported earnings, all three met expectations, all of which were financials. This was not surprising as financials usually head up earnings season. They also give us a good indication of how earnings season should go. Retail sales, however, took center stage as a strong consumer reduces the need for Federal Reserve Board (FRB) rate cuts. This caused an outsized move downward as investors anticipate less stimulus for 2024.

Tuesday                       S&P 500 0.21% | NASDAQ 0.12%

Housing data for March came in weaker than market expectation. Ten major companies reported earnings, with two missing expectations. Although mild, the losses continued. FRB Chair Powell indicated that inflation’s recent strength does not give the board confidence to start easing policy.

Wednesday                 S&P 500 0.58% | NASDAQ 1.15%

11 major companies reported earnings on the day, with three missing expectations. Focus was squarely on earnings as there was little economic data on the day. Tech stocks took a hit as AI chip orders for a specific company did not meet expectations. As would be expected this hit the tech heavy NASDAQ harder than the S&P 500.

Thursday                     S&P 500 0.22% | NASDAQ 0.52%

Initial unemployment claims remain benign. Existing home sales also slowed in March. 11 major companies reported earnings on the day, with one missing expectations. Markets were down for the day, but in a less dramatic fashion. Robust employment data typically is not favorable information when hoping for an FRB rate cut (as investors are).

Friday                         S&P 500 0.88% | NASDAQ 2.05%

Six major companies reported earnings on the day, with one missing expectations. NASDAQ led the way lower as Tech and communications got hit hardest. The best performers on the day were defensives, like utilities, healthcare, staples, and also financials.

Conclusion                  S&P 500 3.05% | NASDAQ 5.52%

The week was bloody. There was not a single up day for the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ Composite. The moves were not founded in fundamental data, as earnings did well. Some forward guidance shows warning of slowing revenues throughout the year, but that is normal for the last two years. Economic data, which signals the economy is doing well, has actually pushed stocks lower. The stronger the economy, the less likely the FRB is to act in reducing rates. The sell-off has extended to approximately 6%. It may take a breather in the coming days but expect that we are not done.

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Markets were lower for the holiday shortened week. Did the daily moves tell us anything about the next month?

Monday                            S&P 500 null% | NASDAQ null%

Happy Memorial Day!

Tuesday                            S&P 500 0.63% | NASDAQ 0.42%

On the final day of trading for May, investors decided to take markets lower. Oil was a major driver on the day. An EU oil embargo agreement made futures jump. This means more inflation, and more risk of Federal Reserve Board (FRB) rate increases.

Wednesday                      S&P 500 0.76% | NASDAQ 0.73%

Better economic data led to a selloff in equities. Stronger manufacturing and job opening data caused stress on the market. This is an indication that investors see the FRB being able to be more aggressive. So, once again, more good news has a bad news effect for markets.

Thursday                          S&P 500 1.84% | NASDAQ 2.69%

OPEC announced they will increase production at a faster pace than expected. They didn’t necessarily increase overall output production, but just when they would reach the levels previously indicated. More oil production should lead to softer prices at the pump. That gave relief to inflation concerns which moved markets broadly higher.

Friday                                S&P 500 1.64% | NASDAQ 2.47%

Happy Jobs Friday! Good news equals bad news once again as the Jobs report did not disappoint. An internal TESLA email was leaked, Elon Musk indicated a hiring freeze for the company due to economic uncertainty. This backs up a concern voiced by Jamie Dimon earlier in the week regarding a hurricane brewing in the near future.

Conclusion                       S&P 500 1.20% | NASDAQ 0.98%

After a stellar week, markets fell flat this last week. The ebbs and flows from the market were far calmer than they have been over the last two weeks. This is a big deal as data that prompted moves were no less inflammatory but yielded a calmer response. This should yield growth over the coming weeks should volatility remain at its current level.

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Always remember that while this is a week in review, this does not trigger or relate to trading activity on your account with Financial Future Services. Broad diversification across several asset classes with a long-term holding strategy is the best strategy in any market environment.
Any and all third-party posts or responses to this blog do not reflect the views of the firm and have not been reviewed by the firm for completeness or accuracy.